Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common liver diseases and is highly prevalent in patients with metabolic disorders. Advanced liver fibrosis is the most significant predictor of disease progression, but may not be clinically obvious, and patients can progress to cirrhosis with hepatic decompensation requiring liver transplantation. As the incidence of NAFLD is increasing worldwide, it is essential to improve identification of patients at risk for progression to hepatic decompensation. The Iowa NAFLD Decompensation Risk score was developed and internally validated in a cohort of NAFLD patients without clinically obvious cirrhosis to help identify the probability of developing hepatic decompensation at 5, 10, and 12 years. The model had a 'c' statistic of 0.89 (0.86-0.92)1.
Age × 0.06335 + presence of diabetes (yes = 1, no = 0) × 0.92221 − platelet count × 0.01522
Predicted probability S(t,P) = S0(t)(Hazard ratio (P)) where S0(t) is the baseline survival.
Baseline survival at 5 years 0.984, at 10 years 0.953, and 12 years 0.944
Ahmed HS, Pedersen N, Jayanna MB, Ten Eyck P, Sanchez A, Murali AR. Predictive Factors and Time to Development of Hepatic Decompensation in Patients with Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. J Gen Intern Med. 2020 Mar 10. doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-05725-1. [Epub ahead of print]