What you can expect from this year’s respiratory virus season
As respiratory virus season looms, understanding the potential impact and taking preventive measures to protect yourself and others in your community is important.
Regardless of what this year’s respiratory season is predicted to look like, the best way to prepare is getting vaccinated.
To understand better what this year’s season could bring, we talked to infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist Karen Brust, MD.
What can we expect from this year’s respiratory virus season?
It’s always tricky to predict the flu and respiratory virus season. There are forecasting models that use surveillance data like flu-related hospitalizations, influenza-like illness outpatient visits, and respiratory virus deaths, and combine those numbers with historical data to try and predict how the upcoming season will turn out. Even with all those numbers, factors like different strains and human behavior can impact how successful the prediction turns out to be.
Last year’s flu season peaked at a lower number of measured cases than the previous season in 2022-23. The U.S. also reached the height of flu season later last year, and we endured a longer season than the previous year.
Cases this season are expected to follow a similar pattern to last season.
Can the Southern Hemisphere’s respiratory virus season provide us with any information?
The flu season in the Southern Hemisphere just finished, and the data shows that this season was similar to their prior flu season.
Since the Southern Hemisphere’s seasons are opposite from ours, the respiratory virus season there typically runs from April to September. Observing the respiratory season in the Southern Hemisphere can be helpful for predicting patterns for the Northern Hemisphere’s season including which strains will be active and how intense the respiratory virus season will be.
It’s important to consider Southern Hemisphere flu activity before the start of the flu season in the U.S., but it should be noted that what happens in the Southern Hemisphere does not always predict outcomes here. Different predominant viruses, variations in population immunity, and other factors can create differences.
Why is it important to get vaccinated against the flu and other respiratory viruses?
Getting vaccinated is the single most important intervention because it’s the best way to reduce your chances of getting sick, getting severe illness, and spreading it to your loved ones. Vaccines undergo rigorous tests for safety, and hundreds of millions of Americans have safely received flu vaccines for more than 50 years.
During seasons when flu vaccine viruses are predicted accurately for circulating flu viruses, flu vaccination has been shown to reduce the risk of having to go to the doctor by 40% to 60%. Getting a COVID-19 vaccination has been proven to reduce the chances of getting sick by more than 50%.
During the 2019-2020 flu season—the last season prior to the COVID-19 pandemic— flu vaccination prevented an estimated 7 million flu illnesses, 3 million flu-associated medical visits, 100,000 flu-associated hospitalizations, and 7,000 flu-associated deaths.
- Avoid close contact with individuals who have symptoms
- Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze
- Wash your hands frequently
- Avoid touching your face
- Stay home when you're feeling unwell.
